通俗演講 Colloquium

2021/11/17(Wed)     14:00 -16:00    一樓演講廳1st Floor(auditorium)

Title

真鍋與哈塞爾曼的諾貝爾物理獎之路
Manabe and Hasselmann’s Path to Nobel Prize in Physics 2021

Speaker

許晃雄博士 (中央研究院環境變遷研究中心)

Dr. Huang-Hsiung Hsu (Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica)

Abstract

如同真鍋與哈塞爾曼說的,2021年諾貝爾物理獎頒給兩位氣候學家是個令人驚訝的消息。但是若瞭解諾貝爾獎的目的是表彰為全人類創造最大福祉的研究者,就顯得合宜。這次是氣候相關議題第三次得到諾貝爾獎的青睞:1995年化學獎(臭氧洞)、2007年和平獎(氣候變遷)、2021年物理獎(全球暖化)。氣候系統包括大氣圈、水圈、岩石圈、冰雪圈、生物圈,以及新竄升的因子人類圈的交互影響,可以說是人類經驗中最複雜的系統。真鍋在50多年前將極其複雜的地球系統簡化成一個一維的氣候模式,推估出我們目前面臨的全球暖化,再將模式逐漸複雜化,逐漸拆解地球氣候之謎。他與同事奠定了我們目前用來模擬過去氣候與推估未來氣候的地球系統模式的主要架構。哈塞爾曼原來是一位海洋學家,早期研究亂流與海洋波交互作用的經驗讓他體會到,看似隨機的物理過程可以引發出有組織的大尺度低頻系統。他設計的指紋辨識方法,可以用來量化自然變異與人為活動對全球暖化的相對影響程度,開展了新的研究領域-偵測與歸因,成為氣候變遷研究的顯學。我們目前面對的全球熱化,在氣候科學研究社群是舊聞,但對非氣候領域的人可能是一項令人震驚的消息。哈塞爾曼得獎後受訪說,我們持續提出氣候變遷警告已經50多年。為何這項警訊被忽視這麼久?真鍋與哈塞爾曼如何有這樣的遠見?他們做了哪些研究?他們是誰?這個報告將為您解析。

As mentioned by Manabe and Hasselmann, it was surprising at first to learn that Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded to two climatologists. On the second thought, it was not surprising at all if realizing the purpose of the Nobel Prize “to endow prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind”. In fact, it is the third time that climate-related issues were recognized by the Nobel Prize, namely, Chemistry Prize in 1995, Peace Prize in 2007, and Physics Prize in 2021. Climate system involving interaction between atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and the most recent agent “anthroposphere” could be one of the most complex systems that human has ever encountered. Manabe projected the warming we are now facing more than 50 years ago using a simplified atmospheric model and then slowly made his earth system model more complex to entangle the Climate Puzzle. He and colleagues created the foundation of earth system models that are now widely used in understanding past climate and projecting future climate. Hasselmann as an oceanographer who studied turbulence and ocean wave interaction in early years realized how seemingly random processes (such as weather) could trigger well-organized large-scale and low-frequency variability (such as climate). He crafted a fingerprint methodology to quantify the relative contribution of natural processes and human activities to the climate change and created a new research field Detection and Attribution. The global heating we are now facing is nothing new to the climate science community but may be a shocking news to many outside the field. Hasselamnn said “we have been warning against climate change for about 50 years or so”. How did this ignorance happen? How did Manabe and Hasselmann have the foresight, what have they done, and who they are? This talk will explore for you. Download: http://real.sinica.edu.tw:8080/ramgen/phys/20211117_HuangHsiungHsu.mp4

Language

演講語言 (Language): in Mandarin