中國時報 2007.03.12　
給我們新能源政策
鄭天佐

今年國際氣候變化組織（IPCC）提出的報告，強調科學家已經以九十％可信度，確立地球表面暖化原因在於人類產業革命後石化燃料（這裡指煤炭、石油和天然氣，有人稱化石燃料，亦即fossil fuel）的大量使用，使得大氣中溫室氣體含量的快速增加；以二氧化碳為例含量在短短兩百多年，從百萬分之二八五增加到三八十左右。經過四十幾個不同全球經濟可能發展情況所做電腦模擬，科學家預測在本世紀末，地球表面溫度將上升攝氏二至四度。後果是冰山冰河的融化使海平面升高數十公分，將低窪地區淹沒，以及一般地區雨量增加和暴風雨加劇，地球生態變化使人類與動物疾病問題嚴重，而有些地區將沙漠化，引發人類大量遷移和物種滅絕等浩劫。

在全球關心和討論如何減少石化燃料的使用聲浪中，美國前副總統高爾因幾年來致力於製片警告全世界地球暖化而在今年奧斯卡頒獎典禮中獲獎且成為閃亮明星。就連一向保守的美國總統布希前幾天都跑到巴西與其總統簽訂共同開發再生能源計畫。巴西因三十多年來成功開發使用乙醇汽車燃料而揚名世界。歐盟也積極付之行動，訂定二0二0年前達到二十％非石化電力和十％再生汽車燃料使用率的目標。

現在不論是哪一國家，政府和民間都在熱烈討論因應全球暖化策略。問題的重要性可從美國人的態度看出，他們雖然明年也將舉行總統大選，但是上至總統下至一般民眾對地球暖化的注意力決不亞於總統大選。反觀台灣，我們是世界上最缺乏能源的國家之一，我們九十八％能源依賴進口，這些幾乎全部是石化能源，但是多數高級官員和一般民眾卻對地球暖化和能源問題不甚關心。不知我們的最高官員有多少人，對全球暖化心中曾詳細思考因應策略，在此請他們採取行動是否是過分的要求。

其實因應地球暖化策略在政府不少單位討論有年，很多單位也都有制訂政策，但上級或因考慮到對經濟發展造成負面影響，或因選舉考量，我們很少看到這些政策付諸實施。我們每年花費幾千億進口石化能源，以節省能源和改進能源效率減少石化能源的使用怎會對經濟發展造成負面影響，那種思考令人費解。筆者只把我們可能採取策略摘要如下：

ㄧ、訂定具體且積極的減碳時程，推動全民減碳運動：以宣導和教育培養民眾及企業界節省能源的習性。二、扶植再生能源和提升家電與生產機器能量效率的產業。三、制訂「碳稅」和新能源稅制：以價制量減少全民使用石化能源，並以減稅和補助等策略，鼓勵他們使用再生能源，務必在五年內達到十％以上轉換目標。四、產業結構的調整：從現有耗能製造業往服務、文化和智慧型產業轉型是今後政府該推動和企業界該思考的大方向。五、儘速完成核四的建造：從台灣能源安全考量，核能是不排放溫室氣體且可靠的主要和備用能源。我們必須在施工品質和運轉安全保證下，盡速完成核四的建造。最重要的還是請政府趕快制訂新能源政策和把它付諸實現吧！

Global warming cannot be ignored

By Tsong Tien-tzou 鄭天佐

Taipei Times Wednesday, Mar 21, 2007, Page 8

This year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a report emphasizing that scientists can confirm with 90 percent certainty that climate change is caused by the rapid increase in greenhouse gases in the air created since we began using large quantities of fossil fuels following the Industrial Revolution.

For example, the concentration of carbon dioxide increased from 285 parts per million (ppm) to about 380 ppm over the past 200 years. After running about 40 computer simulations of the possible scenarios for development of the world economy, scientists now predict that by the end of this century, surface temperatures on the Earth will rise by between two and four degrees Celsius.

As a result, melting icecaps and glaciers will cause the sea level to rise by several ten centimeters by the end of this century. Flooding of low-lying areas and increasing of rainfall and storms in other areas may occur. The ecological changes will pose serious health problems to both humans and animals. New deserts will form, sparking mass human migrations and the extinction of animal species.

Amid calls around the world for a reduction in the use of fossil fuels, former US vice president Al Gore became a star when he won an Oscar this year for a documentary warning of the dangers of global warming that he had dedicated the last several years to making. Even US President George W. Bush has traveled to Brazil to sign a plan to develop renewable energy resources with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Brazil has become famous around the world for successfully developing the use of ethanol fuels over the past 30 years.

The EU is also taking steps, setting itself the goal of generating 20 percent of its electricity from non-fossil fuels and running 10 percent of its vehicles on alternative fuels by 2020.

Governments and citizens in all countries are fervently discussing strategies to cope with global warming. The importance of the issue can be seen in the attitudes of people in the US. Next year the US will hold a presidential election, but global warming is garnering just as much attention.

Meanwhile, Taiwan is one of the most energy-poor countries in the world. We rely on imports for 98 percent of our energy, almost all of which comes from fossil fuels. Yet high-level officials as well as ordinary people seem not to be overly concerned about global warming and energy issues. I wonder how many of our leaders have considered in detail a policy to deal with the issue. I don't believe pressing them to take action is too much to ask.

Admittedly, several government agencies have discussed global warming policies for years and many have set policies. But because certain top officials are concerned about the perceived negative impact on economic development, or because they are thinking about winning elections, we very seldom see those policies implemented.

Every year we spend hundreds of billions of NT dollars to import fossil fuels, so it's difficult to understand why some people think that conserving energy, improving energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuels will retard economic development.

I propose the following:

First, we should set a concrete and proactive timetable for carbon emission reductions and promote activities to encourage people to reduce their carbon emissions. We should also publicize and educate people on how they and corporations can conserve energy.

Second, we should cultivate renewable energy and promote industries that produce energy-efficient household electronics and commercial appliances.

Third, we should establish a carbon tax and a new energy tax system. We should use price controls to reduce the use of fossil energy and use tax breaks and subsidies to encourage people to use renewable energy. We must reach a goal of having 10 percent of our energy to come from renewable sources within five years.

Fourth, we must transform our industries. The government and business sector should work together to move away from energy-intensive industries and into the service, cultural and knowledge based industries.

Fifth, we should complete construction of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant as soon as possible. Nuclear power does not involve the creation of greenhouse gases and is a dependable major source of energy. We must complete construction as fast as work quality standards and operational safety allow.

Most importantly, we must petition the government to speedily set a new energy policy and put it into effect.

Tsong Tien-tzou is a research fellow in the Institute of Physics at Academia Sinica.

Translated by Marc Langer