2006.07.19 中國時報
減碳節能，不能再等了
鄭天佐
當前人類對石化燃料的大量使用，造成地球表面溫室效應，正把我們一步步帶往生態浩劫的不歸路。
最近台灣電，汽油和天然氣，汽車、火車和飛機票價格全面上揚，媒體強調在收入固定情況下，大家一天比一天窮。沒錯，石化燃料蘊藏量有限，開發中國家趕著工業化，能源爭奪日趨激烈，加以中東戰事連連，油價飆高。
入夏以來，台灣天氣急速上升到三十七度，暴風雨接踵而至。世界各地天氣一年比一年熱，科學數據顯示過去一百年地球平均溫度上升○．六度，近幾年上升速度加快，預計本世紀末溫度會升高一到數度。到時氣候巨變，水災與旱災頻頻，南極冰山融化，世界多數海港因海平面上升數公尺而淹沒水中，頻繁的森林大火更加快地球表面溫度的上升，人類將遭遇空前災難。
多數科學家認為地表溫度上升的原因，在於埋在地底下幾十億年的石化燃料的過量使用。其所釋放的多餘熱量和排放的二氧化碳等氣體捕獲更多陽光熱量，造成地球表面溫室效應，導致氣候巨變。
為了減低溫室效應，聯合國有京都議定書的制訂，限制各國溫室氣體排放量。台灣雖非簽署國，但九十八％能源來自外國，為了避免國際制裁我們必須遵守議定書規範，而全民也應該自覺，推動「全民減碳與節能」運動。
要減少溫室氣體，我們可以使用綠色替代能源如生質能、太陽能、風能、地熱和核能等。生質能是利用植物釀造酒精，引擎稍做修改便可用汽油與酒精混合體。價格高的問題可由開發新技術解決，但是科學家估計即使全世界不種糧食的土地，全部用來種植釀造酒精作物，也只足夠供應世界三十％能源。太陽電池價格更貴但仍被看好，不過製程所用化學溶劑可能造成的環境污染必須處理。風能和地熱有其優缺點，但位置和季節限制使其難於普及。
核能的問題在於民眾將其與核彈聯想而心存恐懼，也缺乏好方法處理輻射廢棄物。更嚴重的是鈾礦蘊藏量有限，只要全世界大量使用核能，鈾礦很快會用竭，從低濃度鈾礦粹取所耗能量太大得不償失。滋生式反應爐可解決燃料問題，但擔心被非法用來製造核子彈，國際不會開放使用。雖可使用封閉式滋生反應爐，卻很難預料何時技術才會成熟。輻射廢料少的熔核反應爐離實用至少五十年，緩不濟急。核能是將來很有前途的能源，研發和運作人員的培育刻不容緩。
其實，最經濟實惠的辦法是節省能源。民眾只要從小養成節能習慣，節省一、二十％並不困難。不但可解決能源短缺問題，還能替自己節省開銷，每年並為國家省下千百億外匯。冷氣機溫度從二十三度調高到二十八度，用電可減少三十％。大車換小車汽油減半，改乘公車耗油更少。晚上家裡不必燈火通明，夏天洗澡何必開熱水。距離不遠處以步代車，既健康又省錢。
我們一大部分的能源是用在工業和商業上，如何從耗能的製造業轉型為智慧、服務和文化型產業該常存企業家心中。開發能量效率高的家電、機械和製程可節約能源，也是高利潤產業。
以稅和價制量是減碳節能最有效策略，可預期的是阻力會來自各方，但只要媒體廣為宣導，民眾會慢慢接受。媒體人，請幫忙推動「全民減碳與節能運動」，不只為了下一代，也為了全人類的永續發展和生存。（作者曾任中央研究院物理所所長，現為中央研究院院士）
Conserve energy to avoid a crisis
By Tsong Tien-tzou 鄭天佐
Taipei Times Friday,
Jul 28, 2006, Page 8
Prices for electricity, gasoline,
natural gas and cars, as well as train and plane tickets, have gone up
recently. According to media reports, rising prices set against fixed salaries
means that we are all getting poorer by the day. Indeed, fossil fuels are a
limited resource, and with developing countries rushing to industrialize,
intensified competition for resources and constant wars in the
Summer temperatures in
By then, the globe's climate will have undergone great change, with frequent
floods and droughts. Melting polar ice caps will have caused sea levels to rise
by several meters, inundating most of today's ports. Frequent forest fires will
speed up the warming of the earth's surface and mankind will experience
unprecedented disasters.
The current over-use of fossil fuels is creating a global greenhouse
effect, leading us closer to irreversible environmental disaster.
To minimize the greenhouse effect, the UN is promoting the Kyoto
Protocol, which places national restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.
Although
To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we could use green renewable energy
sources such as biomass, solar power, wind power, geothermal heat or nuclear
power.
Biomass energy uses ethanol made from fermenting plants. With minor
adjustments, engines can run on a mixture of gasoline and ethanol. The high
cost can be offset with the application of more advanced technology, but
scientists estimate that even if all land not used to plant grain was used to
grow plants to make ethanol, it would still only provide 30 percent of global
energy needs.
Solar-powered batteries are even more costly, but are still a favored
option. The pollution created by the chemicals used in the process of
manufacturing such batteries, however, must be dealt with. Wind power and
geothermal power have advantages and shortcomings, but location and seasonal
restraints mean that it will be difficult for these options to be used
universally.
Nuclear power, meanwhile, scares many people because it is widely
associated with nuclear weapons, and we also lack a good method for handling
radioactive waste. More serious, uranium supplies are limited, and if countries
start to use large amounts of nuclear power, uranium supplies will soon be
depleted.
The energy needed to extract usable uranium from low-grade uranium is too
great and is not offset by the energy produced. Breeder reactors can solve the
fuel problem, but because of worries that such reactors may be used in the
production of nuclear bombs, the international community will not deregulate
their use. Although closed breeder reactors could be used, it is very difficult
to predict when that technology will be mature.
The method bringing the greatest practical economic benefit is to simply
save energy. If, when we were children, we were taught the habit of saving
energy, it would not be difficult to reduce energy use by 10 percent or 20
percent. Not only would this help solve energy shortages, it would also reduce
personal expenditures, as well as national expenditures -- to the tune of
billions of dollars in foreign currency.
By setting the air conditioner to 28oC instead of 23oC, we can reduce
energy usage by 30 percent, and by buying a small car instead of a large one,
we might cut the use of gasoline by half. By taking the bus we use even less
gas. There is no need to have all the lights on in the evening or to use warm
water when taking a shower during summer. Furthermore, walking shorter
distances instead of taking the car is both healthy and a money-saver.
A large part of our energy is consumed by industry and business, and
corporate leaders should be constantly thinking about how to move from
energy-hungry manufacturing into the knowledge, service and cultural industries.
Businesses that develop energy-saving home appliances, machinery and
manufacturing processes will be highly profitable.
Although implementing taxes and price restrictions is the most effective
strategy when trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption,
such policies will meet with opposition from many quarters. Widespread
promotion in the media will make the general public accept such policies.
Tsong Tien-tzou is a former director of the
Translated by Perry Svensson