核四公投與能源政策 鄭天佐、王秋森、楊信男
可靠的能源是經濟發展的要件，受困於國際情勢，台灣須擁有多元化能源
首先我們要呼籲朝野雙方將公投作為化解重大公共議題紛爭之道，請勿又令它淪為政治較量的工具。我們堅信自決是人民與生俱來的權利，亦是民主國家應該奉行的最高準則，因此爭議不斷的重大公共議題可採用公投由人民直接決定，但在付諸公投前政府有義務給人民機會，讓他們瞭解問題的內涵及其可能衍生的後果。
核四問題即係涉及科技專業的複雜議題。二十年來贊成與反對雙方各持己見爭論不休，不僅耗損國家與人民的精力財力，亦成為政治亂源而付出不小社會成本。兩年前我們曾針對核四問題在報紙發表『續建核四、提早除役核一與核二、以逐步邁向無核家園的理想』的解決方案。嗣後鑒於核能問題的複雜性，其決策有賴正確的科技專業知識，我們乃與一群重視環境與生態的保育，且具有不同科技背景的知識份子組成碧水學社，每月邀請與能源相關的學者專家向本社成員詳細講解。再經過一年多的學習、討論與思考，針對各類能源的優缺點進行深入分析與評估後，我們認為我們兩年前提出的主張是很值得考慮的方案。可惜就像其他爭議性的公共議題，同樣的資料經不同專家學者的解讀後可能獲致不同結論。其實核四已歷經停建與續建，只因為大法官之釋憲言詞含糊，加上國內一位備受尊敬的政治領袖的堅定反核立場，執政團隊在極大壓力下才決定付之公投。
為求儘速平息紛爭以圖一勞永逸，我們支持以全民公投解決核四爭議，並鄭重建議政府於公投前邀請贊成與反對雙方提供資料，由公投主辦單位以公正客觀的方式將資料呈現給人民，以利他們做最佳抉擇。碧水學社成員願在此將多年來潛心學習所獲結論，提供全民參考：
一、 台灣人口稠密自然資源貧乏，政府應積極倡導並輔導人民節約能源及自然資源。譬如用電時段的適度調整即能避免尖峰超載；提高電機器用電效率可節省大量電能；以精緻耐用產品替代一次性消費用品就能大幅節省自然資源而無損於生活品質。從永續發展考量，環境生態保育與經濟發展一樣重要，兩者應取得適當平衡。
二、 台灣可仿效荷蘭、比利時和瑞士等生活質優的中小型國家，在經濟方面轉型為生產低污染高附加價值產品的，智慧型產業和少污染的服務業，以提升能源生產力，並以符合環保原則的精緻生活方式取代高度消費的生活習性。
三、 政府應積極尋找替代能源。傳統的火力發電不論採用燃煤、燃油或天然氣都會排放大量二氧化碳而導致地球的暖化。迅速成長中的風能和太陽能等低污染再生能源，雖在少數地理條件合適的國家已能供應部分電力，但仍有待開發更高發電效率的技術來減低成本才具競爭力，在短期內不易成為主流能源。氫氣的前景雖然看好，但也有科學家擔心在生產及使用時約有百分之二十難於避免的洩漏會導致臭氧層的破壞，而且生產氫氣亦需其他能源。至於其它綠色能源則尚在研發階段，政府在這方面的研發投資應予大幅提升。
四、 核能的優點是不排放二氧化碳，不會導致地球的暖化，燃料也可再處理使用。核電廠安全性也已大幅提高，所以它是法國、日本、和瑞士等不少國家的主要能源。但在未找到更妥適的核廢料處理方法前，台灣選擇邁向無核家園的理想是正確的。不過為了減輕其對經濟的衝擊，應訂定藍圖逐步減低對核能的依賴。
五、 核四興建即將過半，基於經濟效益、政策延續、及國際信譽，此時若再予停建實是弊多於利。且核四採用新進技術，其安全性高於現有的核一、核二及核三，並有核廢料濃縮度高、體積小的優點。若要減低目前對核電的依賴度以及提高核電廠的安全性，可考慮將舊核電廠提早除役。此外開發綠色能源所需時間將長達二、三十年，核能也可在能源轉型期間提供青黃不接時所需的電力。
六、 核廢料的處理是邁向非核家園不可避免之課題，基於「己所不欲勿施於人」的信念，所有核廢料應以最先進技術在境內處理。媒體應該多報導先進國家處理核廢料資訊，而不是不斷宣染它的危險性，以造成民眾的恐慌與非理性抗爭。
七、 政府應有長遠的能源政策，而不是頭痛醫頭，腳痛醫腳。我們一向以振興產業為名，施行廉價能源政策，導致自產能源逐日縮減。國人也應認清台灣的特殊國際處境，為減低一旦遭受海空封鎖時產業因缺乏能源而陷入癱瘓的風險，台灣的能源有多元化的必要，而且我們應有周全的應變策略。
公投動員全民所耗費社會成本相當可觀。除非公投有法源根據，其結果將不具法律效力，所以我們主張公投必須先立法。可預見的是公投若未經立法，失敗一方隨時會再發動抗爭，則核四爭議將永無休止。（鄭天佐為中研院院士，王秋森為前台大公共衛生學院院長，楊信男為台大教授，三人均為碧水學社成員）（原文，部分登刊於自由廣場，7/8/03）
Some thoughts on nuclear energy
By Tsong Tien-tzou 鄭天佐 and Wang Chiu-sen 王秋森and Yang
Shin-nan 楊信男
Tuesday, Jul 15, 2003,Page 8
We support resolving the dispute over the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant through a referen-dum. We also suggest that the government invite both the pro- and anti-nuclear camps to provide information -- presented to the people by the referendum organizer in an impartial and objective way -- so they can make a well-informed decision. The members of the Green Water Society would like to provide you with our conclusions of years of study.
First, Taiwan is a densely-populated country with insufficient natural resources, so the government should guide the people to conserve power and natural resources. For example, we can avoid possible overload during peak hours by adjusting the time periods of electricity use, or save electricity by improving the efficiency of our machines. We can also save natural resources while maintaining our living quality by replacing "one-time-use" products with refined and durable goods.
For the sake of sustainable development, environmental protection and economic development are equally important. It's necessary to maintain a balance between the two aspects.
Second, Taiwan can learn from other medium-sized countries -- such as the Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland. Economically, its industries should be trans-formed into low pollution, high-added-value "intelligent indus-tries" in an effort to raise energy productivity. We should also replace today's high-consumption lifestyle with a more frugal one in accordance with the principle of environmental protection.
Third, the government should search for alternative energy sources. Thermal power generation by coal, fuel oil or natural gas will generate a great amount of carbon dioxide, causing global warming. Although wind and solar-power generation is already providing some electricity in a few countries, it's still necessary to develop higher generating efficiency in order to reduce the costs and boost competitiveness. These two methods are therefore unlikely to become mainstream energy sources anytime soon.
The future of hydrogen power generation seems bright at pre-sent. But scientists worry that the inevitable 10 percent to 20 percent hydrogen leak may damage the ozone layer. Besides, it takes other energy sources to generate hydrogen power. As for other "green energy" sources, they are still at the research and development stage. The government should therefore boost the amount of money it spends on research in this field.
Fourth, nuclear power is relatively advantageous because it does not generate carbon dioxide or cause global warming. Nuclear fuel can also be reused after processing. Since the safety of nuclear power plants has greatly im-proved, nuclear power has become the major energy source in France, Switzerland, Japan and some other advanced countries.
Before more appropriate treatment of nuclear waste is found, Taiwan's ideal choice of becoming a nuclear-free country is correct. Nevertheless, to reduce the economic impact of discarding nuclear power, we should first draw up a blueprint and gradually lower our dependence on nuclear power.
Fifth, half of the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant has been completed. In view of the nation's economy, policy continuity and international reputation, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages of scrapping the pro-ject right now. In addition, thanks to advanced technologies adopted by the construction project, the safety of the plant is better than that of the three existing plants and its nuclear waste will be highly condensed.
To reduce our dependence on nuclear power and promote the safety of its use, early replacement of the existing plants can be considered. Plus, it takes 20 to 30 years to develop new green energy sources. Nuclear power can provide the energy needed to cover the shortfall in power during the transformation process.
Sixth, working out how to treat nuclear waste is an inevitable task on the way to becoming a nuclear-free homeland. As the saying goes, "Don't do to others what you don't want to be done to you." Nuclear waste should be processed domestically using the latest technologies. The media should frequently report on the successful treatment of waste in advanced countries, rather than constantly exaggerating the dangers of nuclear power, causing panic and irrational protests.
Seventh, this country has always implemented a relatively low-price energy policy. As a result, energy generated from domestic resources has gradually dropped to 3 percent of all power generated. We must understand the nation's special status in the international community. Once it comes under a naval and air blockade, industry may easily be paralyzed because of the lack of power. Energy diversity is necessary here. We should develop domestic energy sources.
A referendum will incur considerable social costs. The outcome of a referendum has no legal force if the legal basis is absent. That's exactly why we advocate completing the legislation of a referendum law (公投法) before any referendum is held. The losing side in a referendum will inevitably stage protests if the rules are not clear. In that case, the dispute over the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant will be endless.
Tsong Tien-tzou is a research fellow at the Institute of Physics at the Academia Sinica. Wang Chiu-sen is a former dean of the College of Public Health at National Taiwan University. Yang Shin-nan is a professor in the department of physics at National Taiwan University. All three are members of the Green Water Society.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG